TDH Market Hypothesis

TDH Break-Even Rental Value

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A win-conditional TDH rental ceiling inferred from recent Main Stage outcomes.

Updated Oct 9, 2026, 4:10 PM

TDH Market Hypothesis

TDH Break-Even Rental Value

Rental feed not ingested
Win-conditional rent ceilingartist-side ETH ÷ (TDH target proxy / 1M)Full 24-hour vote-weighting period before the decision
Recent decisions
Winner-score proxy
Safety buffer
70.8Mapproximate TDH target2.644 ETHmedian artist-side payout0.037 ETHconditional ceiling / 1M22completed mint outcomes

A win-conditional ceiling, not an observed market quote or probability-adjusted expected value. Artist-side ETH uses the official mint-stats artist split, which may be routed to a designated payee and is before other artist costs; free artist, museum, team, and Research editions are excluded. Historical runner-up snapshots are unavailable, so recent final 24HV winner scores proxy the full-window TDH needed to win.

Scenario calculator

What if TDH rented at this quote?

Assumes the rented vote is held for the full 24 hours before the decision and all other votes stay unchanged. The quote starts at the model ceiling; replace it with any future market quote.

TDH to rent70.8MRental cost2.644 ETHCash after rent, if win0 ETHReturn on rent0%

Historical implied break-even

Each point uses an actual artist-side payout and the winner's final 24HV score.

Completed winCurrent assumption
00.0240.0480.0730.097Main Stage decision, chronologicalETH / 1M TDH / 24h0.037 ETH / 1MMeme #537 ＮＯ　ＨＵＭＡＮ　ＩＮＴＥＲＦＡＣＥ: 84.1M final winning 24HV score, 249 paid editions, 8.129 ETH artist-side payout, 0.097 ETH per 1M TDH#537Meme #538 Meme Worthy: 66.2M final winning 24HV score, 83 paid editions, 2.71 ETH artist-side payout, 0.041 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #539 the_only_cloud: 77.2M final winning 24HV score, 79 paid editions, 2.579 ETH artist-side payout, 0.033 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #540 Tears of the Desert: 66.4M final winning 24HV score, 80 paid editions, 2.612 ETH artist-side payout, 0.039 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #541 Burn Mechanism: 76.3M final winning 24HV score, 82 paid editions, 2.677 ETH artist-side payout, 0.035 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #542 Open Source: 56.3M final winning 24HV score, 84 paid editions, 2.742 ETH artist-side payout, 0.049 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #543 GIANT — Freedom to Burn: 47.9M final winning 24HV score, 75 paid editions, 2.448 ETH artist-side payout, 0.051 ETH per 1M TDH#543Meme #544 The Ride: 53.6M final winning 24HV score, 97 paid editions, 3.167 ETH artist-side payout, 0.059 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #545 Age of Memes: 48.3M final winning 24HV score, 76 paid editions, 2.481 ETH artist-side payout, 0.051 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #546 PebbleLand: 57.5M final winning 24HV score, 76 paid editions, 2.481 ETH artist-side payout, 0.043 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #547 The Great Meme Expo | Sgt. Pepe’s World — Episode 1: 75.5M final winning 24HV score, 177 paid editions, 5.778 ETH artist-side payout, 0.077 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #548 WA-NGMI: 58.4M final winning 24HV score, 87 paid editions, 2.84 ETH artist-side payout, 0.049 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #549 Legacy of Wisdom: 59M final winning 24HV score, 77 paid editions, 2.514 ETH artist-side payout, 0.043 ETH per 1M TDH#549Meme #550 Chromie Squiggle Museum Acquisition: 61M final winning 24HV score, 77 paid editions, 2.514 ETH artist-side payout, 0.041 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #551 Permanent Pepe: 81.5M final winning 24HV score, 234 paid editions, 7.639 ETH artist-side payout, designated payee: 6529 Network Museum, 0.094 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #552 The First Believer: 49.4M final winning 24HV score, 78 paid editions, 2.546 ETH artist-side payout, 0.051 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #553 Network State Conference 2026: 66.5M final winning 24HV score, 73 paid editions, 2.383 ETH artist-side payout, 0.036 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #554 Patience is a Vinetree: 65.8M final winning 24HV score, 78 paid editions, 2.546 ETH artist-side payout, 0.039 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #555 SURVIVE at Dominio PubliCC0: 59.3M final winning 24HV score, 73 paid editions, 2.383 ETH artist-side payout, 0.04 ETH per 1M TDH#555Meme #556 Refuge: 47.5M final winning 24HV score, 101 paid editions, 3.297 ETH artist-side payout, 0.069 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #557 Seize Your Community: 53.8M final winning 24HV score, 110 paid editions, 3.591 ETH artist-side payout, 0.067 ETH per 1M TDHMeme #558 HODL - Don't Get Shaken Out: 72.4M final winning 24HV score, 95 paid editions, 3.101 ETH artist-side payout, 0.043 ETH per 1M TDH#558
+ 20 artist editions in current termsIncluded in the win, but intentionally unvalued here because they are in-kind, illiquid, and have no point-in-time sale price.
Recent Main Stage economic outcomes
CardPaid editionsArtist-side ETHFinal 24HV scoreCeiling / 1M
#558 HODL - Don't Get Shaken Out@TarainAbstract953.101 ETH72.4M0.043 ETH
#557 Seize Your Community@Zoku1103.591 ETH53.8M0.067 ETH
#556 Refuge@intrepid1013.297 ETH47.5M0.069 ETH
#555 SURVIVE at Dominio PubliCC0@CasaNUA732.383 ETH59.3M0.04 ETH
#554 Patience is a Vinetree@smpsmyth782.546 ETH65.8M0.039 ETH
#553 Network State Conference 2026@SummerMaxi732.383 ETH66.5M0.036 ETH
#552 The First Believer@Ayla782.546 ETH49.4M0.051 ETH
#551 Permanent Pepe@punk6529 · payee: 6529 Network Museum2347.639 ETH81.5M0.094 ETH
#550 Chromie Squiggle Museum Acquisition@RegularDad772.514 ETH61M0.041 ETH
#549 Legacy of Wisdom@Parisa772.514 ETH59M0.043 ETH